MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CST MON MAR 24 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 250245Z - 250545Z
   
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 5Z...HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE MOST
   INTENSE CELLS.	WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ISOLATED CB ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN OK AND IS MOVING
   INTO CENTRAL OK...AND ADDITIONAL/SHALLOWER CONVECTION EVIDENT
   OVER SWRN OK MAY ALSO BREAK LFC AND PRODUCE THUNDER.  CONVECTION
   IS DEVELOPING IN MESO-BETA SCALE AREA OF MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A
   SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
   OVER TX PANHANDLE.  ASSOCIATED ASCENT ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY STEEPEN
   8-8.5 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES ALREADY OBSERVED ALOFT IN 00Z OUN
   RAOB.	 AS THIS ASCENT JUXTAPOSES WITH PROGRESSIVELY RICHER LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ...MORE TSTMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP.  MODIFIED OUN RAOB AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER MOST OF AREA.  DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR FROM ELEVATED INFLOW LEVEL THROUGH CAPE-BEARING LAYER
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIMITING ORGANIZED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH
   SOME CELLS.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR CNU-SWO-LTS
   LINE AT 2Z...MOVING SWD 10-15 KT ACROSS OK.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF
   PARCELS TO LFC MAY STRENGTHEN AS FRONTAL INCURSION IN BOUNDARY
   LAYER TIGHTENS/STEEPENS LOW LEVEL THETA SURFACES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/25/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
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