MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NORTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 92...
VALID 052148Z - 052345Z
RIGHT MOVING TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER SRN STONEWALL COUNTY IS
MOVING ENEWD 25-30 KT NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT. AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN ACROSS NRN TX IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CONVECTION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THIS IS RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL WSWLY WINDS OF 50-60 KT ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL PERSIST. THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING BACKED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND A LOWERING
LCL HEIGHT ALSO INDICATES A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT AS THE STORM
MOVES INTO HASKELL COUNTY BY 22Z AND THROCKMORTON COUNTY BY 23Z.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THIS STORM ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF WW
92 BEFORE 00Z...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF
WW 92 WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...ELEVATED CELLS ARE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE
CDS AREA TOWARD SWRN OK. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THESE
CELLS...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE NWD.
..WEISS.. 04/05/2003
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
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