STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF NW TX AND SW OK TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   30 SE OKC DUA DAL SEP 10 SE ABI 60 S CDS CDS CSM OKC 30 SE OKC.
   
   SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
   TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBF 40 E MLU ESF 35 WNW ESF TYR 35 SE
   BWD HDO 20 W COT 10 SSE DRT 70 SW SJT BGS AMA DHT EHA HUT CNU HRO
   PBF.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 SSW WAL RIC CHO 10 NW MRB AOO IPT 10 NNE AVP 20 S JFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 25 S LRD
   ...CONT... DRT 70 ENE P07 35 ENE CVS SAF 50 ENE INW 45 S SGU
   10 NE P38 40 W TWF 60 ENE S80 65 SE FCA 25 WSW HVR 50 W GGW
   25 SSW OLF 35 N REJ BUB FLV POF BNA 25 SE LEX 10 NE ZZV ERI
   20 NW ERI 10 SW BUF 45 NNW BUF ART 10 WNW SLK MPV 15 NNE PSM.
   
   WHILE BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS CANADA...SERIES OF SHORT
   WAVES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITHIN BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC
   MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.  LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   HAS LIFTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND WILL
   CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
   END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SYSTEM IS
   ONGOING...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT REMNANT PRECIPITATION MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF
   VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY MID DAY.  CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER...WILL
   TEND TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE INTO WEST
   CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVELS
   WILL REMAIN MOIST IN WAKE OF SQUALL LINE.  SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION...OROGRAPHY...AND FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT ON
   TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKELY WILL SUPPORT NEW CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA/
   MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THOUGH
   CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE...
   DRY MID-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND
   AID POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW
   ENVIRONMENT.  THIS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS CONVECTION 
   DEVELOPS EASTWARD ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE DELMARVA
   PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...A RISK
   FOR HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS
   DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...BEFORE
   THREAT ENDS AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO THE CENTRAL
   CAROLINAS...BUT DUE TO MUCH WEAKER MID/UPPER FORCING...STRONGER
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH
   OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS/
   STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM MIGRATING OUT OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
   TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT.  
   
   BY LATE AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
   ALONG DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS...ALONG NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS 
   EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS/GULF
   COAST.  PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE IN EXCESS
   OF 1000 J/KG...IN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE BENEATH STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...WILL
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
   FEW TORNADOES.
   
   AS SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAXIMUM NOSES ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA
   TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...INTERACTION WITH POLAR JET STREAK
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
   FOCUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND
   DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WEST/SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS. 
   WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER ENHANCING LOW-
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL
   EXIST...BEFORE SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE RED
   RIVER VALLEY.  
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING
   IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF WARM FRONT...WITH
   STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GRADUALLY
   SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE SPREADING
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH
   MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST EXCESSIVE CAPE...VERY
   STRONG SHEAR PROFILES/INSTABILITY ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
    
   ..KERR.. 04/05/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z