Oklahoma - Forecast discussions IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see additional information here FXUS64 KOUN 191611 AAB AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE AREA. ONE PART OF THE SECOND ROUND IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE LOW IS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BETWEEN PERRYTON AND BORGER. DRYLINE HAS PUSHED THROUGH CDS AND ABI SO IT PROBABLY LIES ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE IS AN AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTH TO BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND GAINESVILLE. WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING POPS. AT THE MOMENT WILL LEAVE AFTERNOON POPS ALONE WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. UNSURE OF SPECIFIC TIMING OF ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE SITUATION. .26. -------------------------- 520 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND DRY LINE. DESPITE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING... DRYING OF FINE FUELS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER. -------------------------------------- SIG WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT WAVE OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS ONCE MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/OUTLOOKS FROM SPC AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PERTINENT DETAILS. WITH ONGOING WEATHER...NOT MUCH EMPHASIS/TIME FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. QUICK LOOK AT LATEST RUN OF GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND AND BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR OUT PERIODS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE NUMBERS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT SEEM REASONABLE AND BLEND WELL WITH SURROUND OFFICES. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG WARNING AND/OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH. DAY SHIFT WILL RE-EVALUATE SITUATION LATER THIS MORNING FOR POST DRY LINE AREAS. FCSTID = 11 OKC 79 48 68 46 / 100 40 0 0 HBR 79 46 68 44 / 40 20 0 0 SPS 83 49 73 47 / 80 10 0 0 GAG 68 42 66 39 / 80 40 0 0 PNC 73 46 66 44 / 100 60 0 0 DUA 82 53 73 49 / 80 40 0 0 .OUN... OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON OKZ033>039-044-045. TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON TXZ083>090.  FXUS64 KTSA 191327 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 625 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR THROUGH MID MORNING HOWEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CURRENT CONVECTION GIVEN STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER HOWEVER PER KINX VAD PROFILER. CURRENT SATELLITE SUPPORTS IDEA OF CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY BUILDING TO THE WEST BENEATH FULL SUN. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS ACROSS SE OK CURRENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF COLD POOL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK WILL BE MONITORED FOR FOCUS/EFFECTS OF UPCOMING AFTERNOON STORMS. FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  FXUS64 KTSA 191123 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 620 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OBVIOUSLY SLOW TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS SW OK HOWEVER THEY HAVE A LONG WAY TO TRAVEL BEFORE AFFECTING EASTERN OK. INTERESTING DOWNWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEAST OK/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE PAST THREE HOURS. MESONET DATA SHOWS BROAD AREA OF 5-10 DEGREE DECREASE IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS SERVES AS FURTHER INDICATION OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND RESULTANT LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FUTURE IMPACTS OF THIS MIXING REGARDING MORNING CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ACQUIRE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON RETURNING MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  FXUS64 KOUN 191022 AAB AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 520 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND DRY LINE. DESPITE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING... DRYING OF FINE FUELS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER. -------------------------------------- SIG WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT WAVE OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS ONCE MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/OUTLOOKS FROM SPC AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PERTINENT DETAILS. WITH ONGOING WEATHER...NOT MUCH EMPHASIS/TIME FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. QUICK LOOK AT LATEST RUN OF GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND AND BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR OUT PERIODS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE NUMBERS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT SEEM REASONABLE AND BLEND WELL WITH SURROUND OFFICES. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG WARNING AND/OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH. DAY SHIFT WILL RE-EVALUATE SITUATION LATER THIS MORNING FOR POST DRY LINE AREAS. FCSTID = 11 OKC 79 48 68 46 / 100 40 0 0 HBR 79 46 68 44 / 40 20 0 0 SPS 83 49 73 47 / 80 10 0 0 GAG 68 42 66 39 / 80 40 0 0 PNC 73 46 66 44 / 100 60 0 0 DUA 82 53 73 49 / 80 40 0 0 .OUN... OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON OKZ033>039-044-045. TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON TXZ083>090.  FXUS64 KOUN 190950 AAA AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 440 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 CCF NUMBERS ADDED... SIG WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT WAVE OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS ONCE MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/OUTLOOKS FROM SPC AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PERTINENT DETAILS. WITH ONGOING WEATHER...NOT MUCH EMPHASIS/TIME FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. QUICK LOOK AT LATEST RUN OF GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND AND BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR OUT PERIODS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE NUMBERS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT SEEM REASONABLE AND BLEND WELL WITH SURROUND OFFICES. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG WARNING AND/OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH. DAY SHIFT WILL RE-EVALUATE SITUATION LATER THIS MORNING FOR POST DRY LINE AREAS. FCSTID = 11 OKC 79 48 68 46 / 100 40 0 0 HBR 79 46 68 44 / 40 20 0 0 SPS 83 49 73 47 / 80 10 0 0 GAG 68 42 66 39 / 80 40 0 0 PNC 73 46 66 44 / 100 60 0 0 DUA 82 53 73 49 / 80 40 0 0 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.  FXUS64 KTSA 190937 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 435 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA HOWEVER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. IF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH THEN WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF TULSA. WHILE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA APPEARS LIGHT ON RADAR LATEST TULSA VAD PROFILE SHOWS HAS 40KTS WITHIN 2K FT OF THE GROUND MAKING GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS. WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SW OK/WEST TEXAS AND THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD SUNRISE. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH PROGGED INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  FXUS64 KOUN 190901 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 SIG WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT WAVE OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS ONCE MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/OUTLOOKS FROM SPC AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PERTINENT DETAILS. WITH ONGOING WEATHER...NOT MUCH EMPHASIS/TIME FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. QUICK LOOK AT LATEST RUN OF GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND AND BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR OUT PERIODS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE NUMBERS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT SEEM REASONABLE AND BLEND WELL WITH SURROUND OFFICES. FCSTID = 11 CCF NUMBERS OUT SHORTLY. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.  FXUS64 KTSA 190805 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 305 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS OF 70MPH ALONG WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1.00 INCH HAIL. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO INGEST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. CURRENT SUPERCELL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH OKFUSKEE COUNTY AROUND 5:30 AM ASSUMING IT MAINTAINS CURRENT STRENGTH AND HEADING. WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIATED ACROSS EASTERN OK AS THIS ENTIRE COMPLEX LIFTS E/NE. FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  FXUS64 KTSA 190736 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 235 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003 EVOLVING MCS UNDERWAY OVER WESTER OK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN OK BY EARLY MORNING FUELED BY INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HISTORY OF STORMS INCLUDE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT OF TAKING MORNING CONVECTION EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SERVING TO DEEPEN SW OK SURFACE LOW AND MAINTAIN FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING PROVIDING EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELL FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCENARIO WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LARGE WIND EVENT DURING LATE EVENING HOURS AS CELLS MERGE WITHIN VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE ENVIRONMENT. EXACT SURFACE LOW(S) PLACEMENT AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN FINETUNING TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE AND THE THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF POSTFRONTAL PRECIP CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG KS/OK BORDER. THIS AREA WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE UPCOMING 24HR PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY USHERING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS. SUNDAY NIGHT PLACES RIDGE AXIS INTO E OK/W AR AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS. MODERATING TEMPS INTO MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS NEXT SW UPPER LOW APPROACHES. TUL 75 49 68 45 / 80 40 10 5 FSM 75 54 72 47 / 80 60 10 5 MLC 77 52 71 44 / 80 30 5 5 BVO 74 44 65 41 / 80 50 10 5 FYV 70 51 66 40 / 80 60 10 5 BYV 67 53 66 40 / 80 70 10 5 MKO 75 51 68 46 / 80 40 10 5 MIO 72 48 64 41 / 80 60 10 5 F10 76 51 69 46 / 80 30 5 5 HHW 81 55 73 48 / 80 30 5 5 FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  FXUS64 KOUN 190355 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1055 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003 HAVE UPPED OVERNIGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN A CORRIDOR THRU CENTRAL OK. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER W AND CENTRAL TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING/INCREASING/SPREADING NE AS LLJ ENHANCES LL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT BENEATH AND AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND POTENT UPPER JET. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO 1 OR MORE MCS CLUSTERS AND ROLL NE ACROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT. PRELIM ASSESSMENT OF SAT SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER CONSULTING W/SPC IS MDT RISK FOR MUCH OF OK E OF RUFLY END-OKC-ADM. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED TO BE OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...EXACT LOCATION UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ON OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE FEATURES. PART OF MDT AREA COULD BE UPGRADED IN A LATER UPDATE. FCSTID = 24 OKC 62 76 50 68 / 80 70 60 0 HBR 57 77 49 70 / 70 50 20 0 SPS 61 81 52 73 / 60 50 20 0 GAG 52 64 43 66 / 40 70 80 0 PNC 61 69 48 65 / 60 80 80 0 DUA 63 81 55 72 / 50 70 70 0 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.  FXUS64 KTSA 190225 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 925 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003 UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL BE SENDING UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST TONIGHT AND HAVE HIGHEST TO LOWEST POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AND SEE NO REASON WHY THEY WOULD FALL UNTIL LATER ON TOMORROW WHEN THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. THUS...UPDATED THESE GRIDS AND FRESHENED UP LOW TEMPS TO MATCH THEM. ALSO WORKED OVER THE QPF GRIDS. THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ABOUT AN MCS FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THINK THIS SCENARIO IS GOOD AND THAT PERHAPS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY BE MORE THAN THE SEVERE THREAT. ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION... SURFACE DRYLINE THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. AT 02Z DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM WEST OF ENID INTO FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. ONE LONE STORM DEVELOP AROUND SPS THIS EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE INTO CAPPED AMS. HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE BEGINNING TO BECOME EVIDENT WITH LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING DEVELOPMENT WAY DOWN TOWARD BIG BEND AREA AT 02Z...AND ALSO TOWARD MAF/LBB. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO NORTHWEST TX AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST OK AS WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL JET ALSO INTENSIFIES. WILL LIKELY SEE AN MCS DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST THAT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OK INTO KS DURING THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS BEST OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. ABBAS  This data is from the IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network)