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FXUS64 KTSA 081948 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 248 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 DRYLINE POSITION CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR A ALVA OK - ALTUS OK LINE WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN OK KEEPING T/TD SPREADS AOB 10 DEGREES. SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NE/KS BORER. 18Z OKC SOUNDING SAMPLED EXPLOSIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING CU FIELD DEVELOPING NEAR DRYLINE BOUNDARY. LATEST RUC DATA SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 50-60KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VECTOR MAGNITUDE OF 15-20KTS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE BENEFICIAL RFD GENERATION. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NUMBER OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LACK OF DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO LOCALLY BACK SURFACE WINDS ARE THE CURRENT LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK. FORECAST ID = 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KOUN 081920 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 219 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 ...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW CONT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER WRN KS/ERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.. AND THERE IS SUBTLE EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY IMPULSE PUSHING EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. 18Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATES THAT CAPPING IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA. POTENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EVIDENT WITH VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.. LOW LCL HGHTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION..THE HODOGRAPH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.. HILITED BY A DISTINCT KINK IN THE HODOGRAPH AT ABOUT 1.5 KM AGL. THIS TYPE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE MENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS HAS OFTEN BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH ENVIRONMENTS SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LIVED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. EXPECT INITIATION INVOF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS STRONG UVVS CONT ALONG DRYLINE UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO TEXAS LATER THIS AFT/EVE. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL RELOAD FRIDAY OVER THE SE ZONES.. AND THEN EXPAND NWWD INTO REDEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY NITE. HAVE READJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING. NEXT WAVE WILL EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY.. BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE OUN CWA ATTM. HOWEVER..STILL LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS ALONG/SE OF I44 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF DRYLINE/FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY BUILD SWD FAR ENUF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS..BUT TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL BE LURKING CLOSE BY AND SHUD MOVE BACK NWD MONDAY/TUES AS LONG WAVE TROF RELOADS OVER THE WRN CONUS. WE WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF MOISTURE RETURN.. AND THEN EXPAND/INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THRU MID WEEK. MORE BOUTS OF SVR STORMS SEEM LIKELY AS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS SUPERIMPOSED UNDERNEATH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW. MILLER OKC 64 89 67 84 / 60 20 20 30 HBR 59 91 64 88 / 10 20 20 20 SPS 66 94 68 92 / 50 30 20 30 GAG 51 89 57 82 / 10 30 30 10 PNC 64 85 67 82 / 60 20 40 20 DUA 71 88 72 88 / 60 20 20 40 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 081813 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 100 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 ENHANCED CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AHEAD OF DRY LINE. AIRMASS HAD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG DRY LINE WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM. ALTHOUGH MAIN TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF AREA OVER EASTERN KANSAS...ANY STORMS THAT DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. FORECAST ID = 12 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 081549 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 1045 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 CURRENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. WILL UPDATE ONLY TO BUMP 2ND PERIOD POPS UP SLIGHTLY TO MATCH THIS AFTERNOONS POP CONFIGURATION. IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRY LINE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AT LEAST THE SAME OR GREATER AFTER 00Z ACROSS CWA. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE THREAT FOR BASEBALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS/STRONGER CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE. WILL DISCUSS SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL FURTHER ON THE 100 PM HWO UPDATE. FORECAST ID = 12 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KOUN 081537 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1035 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 IN GENERAL... THINGS ARE GOING AS PLANNED. WE MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IF MODEL FORECASTS TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. THIS IS MAINLY A CONCERN IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WHERE SPEEDS MAY TURN OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SO FAR... PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT SPEEDS WILL NOT GET QUITE THAT STRONG. SIMILARLY... IN THAT SAME AREA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER... SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD BRING THE ACTUAL READINGS AND THE FORECAST BACK TOGETHER WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. WILL WATCH TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. FCSTID = 23 = CMS -------------------------------------------------------------------- 435 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 BUSY NIGHT HERE WITH PERSISTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED... BUT SHOULD BE OUT BY AROUND 445 AM. AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS... THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE DRAGGED NORTHEAST AND PULL DRYLINE EAST. THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND CONVECTION IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HALT ITS ADVANCE. ETA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING EVEN BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AFTER THIS EVENING. DO NOT THINK DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE QUITE AS FAR AS MODELS ADVERTISE TOMORROW WITHOUT A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH... SO WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FARTHER WEST. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN WE MAY FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FCSTID = 26 OKC 88 62 87 67 / 30 20 20 30 HBR 89 57 89 64 / 20 20 10 20 SPS 93 64 92 66 / 20 20 20 20 GAG 86 51 86 57 / 10 10 10 10 PNC 85 61 85 66 / 40 30 20 30 DUA 89 72 88 72 / 40 30 20 30 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 081216 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 715 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION... TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 9 AM CDT. SUPERCELL OVER LEFLORE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN OVER NEXT HOUR. SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WARM FRONT HAS BECOME RATHER ILL DEFINED BUT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND TULSA AREA. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS SFC DEW POINTS IN LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF CWA. DRY LINE IS PROGGED TO BE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...PROBABLY NOT CLEARING THE TULSA METRO. CLOUD COVER IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICK...SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING WELL INTO 80S BY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPS DO CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAW TUESDAY...BUT CERTAINLY GOOD ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG ROUGHLY NORTH OF TULSA. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR CELL ROTATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH 45-50KTS LLJ CONTINUING AT 850 MB. CAP SHOULD BE BROKEN FAIRLY EASILY OVER NE OK BY CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE BY APPROX 21Z...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH. DUE MAINLY TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE PLACED HIGHEST RISK FOR SVR OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT ANY STORMS THAT COULD GET GOING TO THE SOUTH WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE AS WELL. LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SHEAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. FORECAST ID = 14 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. SULLIVAN |
FXUS64 KTSA 081050 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 550 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 SUPERCELL STORM PREVIOUSLY IN PITTSBURG COUNTY LOST ITS ORGANIZATION AS THE MESOCYCLONE SEPARATED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. THE ORPHANED MESO IS TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY AS OFF 545 AM...WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING MORE EAST THROUGH LATIMER COUNTY. LATIMER COUNTY CELL MAY BE TRYING REORGANIZE SOME...WITH A BROAD ROTATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR ROTATION POTENTIAL. FORECAST ID = 08 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 080953 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 453 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 SUPERCELL OVER PITTSBURG COUNTY REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. LOCAL STORM SPECIFIC S-R HELICITY ANALYSIS DEPICTS VALUES INCREASING FROM THE MID 200S INTO THE MID 300S AS THE CELL MOVES INTO LATIMER COUNTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORM ROTATION. OTHER STRONG CELLS MOVING INTO MCINTOSH COUNTY ARE IN A RELATIVE S-R HELICITY MIN...BUT VALUES THERE ARE IN THE MID 200S. WE ARE NOT IN CONTACT WITH ANY SPOTTERS OR OFFICIALS IN PITTSBURG COUNTY...SO NO GROUND TRUTH AT THIS TIME. AT THE VERY LEAST HAIL TO PERHAPS BASEBALL SIZE MAY HAVE OCCURRED NORTH OF THE MESO TRACK. FORECAST ID = 08 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KOUN 080935 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 435 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 BUSY NIGHT HERE WITH PERSISTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED... BUT SHOULD BE OUT BY AROUND 445 AM. AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS... THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE DRAGGED NORTHEAST AND PULL DRYLINE EAST. THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND CONVECTION IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HALT ITS ADVANCE. ETA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING EVEN BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AFTER THIS EVENING. DO NOT THINK DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE QUITE AS FAR AS MODELS ADVERTISE TOMORROW WITHOUT A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH... SO WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FARTHER WEST. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN WE MAY FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FCSTID = 26 OKC 88 62 87 67 / 30 20 20 30 HBR 89 57 89 64 / 20 20 10 20 SPS 93 64 92 66 / 20 20 20 20 GAG 86 51 86 57 / 10 10 10 10 PNC 85 61 85 66 / 40 30 20 30 DUA 89 72 88 72 / 40 30 20 30 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 080920 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 420 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 THUNDERSTORM OVER PITTSBURG COUNTY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND IS EVOLVING INTO A SUPERCELL. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND THIS CELL MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCT VERY LARGE HAIL AND HAS AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT. LATEST SCANS SHOW A STRONG MESO DEVELOPING IN THE CELL AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. THE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL FURTHER SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLOW DECREASE...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THIS STORM. FORECAST ID = 08 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 080853 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 352 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 THE LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL TRACKING DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE EAST...260 DEGREES AT 21 KNOTS. THIS IS A SLIGHT LEFT DEVIATION FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS REDUCES THE CELL SPECIFIC STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY FROM THE LOW 300S AHEAD IN PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES TO THE MID 200S. IN ADDITION...SOME VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE/REFORM TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND WITH THE CELL HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DROP IN THE OVERALL MASS OF REFLECTIVITY...BUT TO OTHERWISE MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL TRENDS WITH THE CELL AND ITS ENVIRONMENT ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SOME DECREASE IN CELL ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR AS IT ENTERS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT THE SITUATION IS FAR FROM CLEAR AND THE CELL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MESOCYCLONE BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHWEST PUSMATAH COUNTY...VERY NEAR THE CHOCTAW COUNTY BORDER AT 1040Z. FORECAST ID = 08 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 080833 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 325 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 AND THE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES... ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING. SFC WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER SRN OK WILL LIFT/OR REFORM N INTO KS LATER THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF 70+KT MID-LEVEL JET PROGGD TO PUNCH INTO NW OK/SWRN KS. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH STRATUS EXTENDING FROM SRN OK SWD THRU ERN TX AND DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOWER IF CLOUDS HANG TOUGH. WARMING H7 TEMPS (+11/12C) WILL EFFECTIVELY INCREASE THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND SHUD HOLD CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY LINE SHUD BE ACROSS CNTRL OK BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO ERN KS/NRN OK. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH ETA KF SOLUTION SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN OPERATIONAL ETA. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS...SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXTREME...WITH MESOETA SHOWING 3000-4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE THE MESOETA DEPICTS 45 KTS OF SLY H85 FLOW. WHILE THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE OK IF THE CAP IS BROKEN. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SE ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO SE OK IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO PRESENCE OF A STRONGER CAP. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING DRY LINE ON FRI...WITH MESOETA KEEPING IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MIXES IT FARTHER W INTO CNTRL/WRN OK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DRY LINE POSITION AND CAP STRENGTH. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGGD TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 06Z SAT AND WILL SWING INTO WRN KS BY 18Z. DRY LINE WILL MAKE YET ANOTHER PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL F I N A L L Y GET SWEPT E OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON. BIG DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS/ECWMF BY TUES...WITH MRF BRINGING MOISTURE RAPIDLY NWD WHILE ECMWF DRIVES SFC HIGH TO THE GULF COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TUES. TUL 89 69 91 69 / 40 20 20 20 FSM 88 68 91 67 / 50 30 20 20 MLC 88 72 90 72 / 30 20 20 20 BVO 89 67 91 67 / 40 20 20 20 FYV 85 67 86 66 / 50 30 20 20 BYV 84 66 86 66 / 50 30 20 20 MKO 88 69 91 68 / 40 20 20 20 MIO 86 68 88 66 / 50 40 20 20 F10 89 70 91 70 / 30 20 20 20 HHW 87 73 90 71 / 40 20 20 20 FORECAST ID = 18 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 080440 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL JET FIRMLY ESTABLISHED VIA PROFILER NETWORK WITH BROAD AREA OF 45-50KT 850MB WINDS ACROSS OK. EXPECT STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE TO TRANSLATE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SERVING TO SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE IGNITING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AT 1130 PM...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. REPORTS ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN OK STORMS SUBSTANTIATE LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE FOR STORMS THAT TRACK ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 080333 AFDTUL MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 1035 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND CLOSELY FOLLOWING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG DRY LINE IN TX PANHANDLE HAS CONTINUED EASTWARD INTO SW OK WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS RIDING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. NEW MODEL DATA SUPPORTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WHILE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. STORMS WHICH MAINTAIN THEMSELVES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL POTENTIALLY BE SURFACE BASED GIVEN LOW T/TD SPREADS AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KTSA 080210 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 905 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003 INTEND TO LEAVE FORECAST PACKAGE AS IS. ONLY RUC IS AVAILABLE SO FAR FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUNS...WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE RATHER WELL WITH 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ETA. EXPECT STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT WITH 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY H8 JET. ETA IS DEVELOPS MOST MID LEVEL RH OVER ERN OK...BUT BOTH ETA AND GFS DEVELOP PRECIP BEFORE DAWN. EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS MAY LET A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE 2-5AM. FORECAST ID= 2 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. |
FXUS64 KOUN 080149 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA 845 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003 MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELITE TRENDS WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONT FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS ACROSS SW ZONES WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WAA DEVELOPING NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVELS HAVE SOME WORK TO DO WITH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO OVERCOME HERE IN CENTRAL OK. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY BE SMALL HERE ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH CHANCES LINGERING TOWARD MORNING IN THE NORTH AND NE. NO CHANGES PAST FIRST PERIOD. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 30 --------------------------------------------- 353 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003 REPEATED VISITS BY WAVES IN THE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TONIGHT... THURSDAY... FRIDAY... SATURDAY... AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET AT THIS POINT. HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND MADE SIMILAR... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS ABRUPT... CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES. BETWEEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLOUD COVER... DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE NEW MRF GUIDANCE. ALSO MODIFIED POPS SOMEWHAT. IN HOPES THAT THE MODEL FORECAST OF FULL-SCALE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR... HAVE LOWERED/REMOVED POPS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY... IF THE FRONT FAILS TO MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE GFS SHOWS... THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE PUT BACK THE WAY IT WAS. OKC 71 87 62 88 / 50 30 30 10 HBR 66 88 57 89 / 30 20 20 10 SPS 70 91 63 93 / 30 20 20 10 GAG 57 85 51 86 / 40 10 10 0 PNC 69 85 59 86 / 50 40 30 10 DUA 73 89 70 91 / 30 40 30 20 FORECAST ID = 23 = CMS .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. |